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Monday, September 4, 2017

We're in between three possibilities

from ssstormchasers.org

Hurricane Irma Strengthens Warnings Likely Later Today Leeward Islands. Trend Westward Continues 

Hurricane Watch continues for the Leeward Islands and warnings will like be required later today. Watches and Warnings are likely to be extended westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as well. Hurricane Irma is a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The motion to the west southwest continues this morning and as the hurricane loses latitude it increases the risk to the entire Greater Antilles chain. The outflow of the hurricane is improving as the overall presentation. Irma seems to be growing in size as well.

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IRMA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of Irma. Additional hurricane and tropical
storm watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of
this area later this morning or this afternoon.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 16.8 North, longitude 52.6 West. Irma is moving toward the
west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is
expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move closer
to the Leeward Islands through Tuesday and then be near the northern
Leeward Islands Tuesday night.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast through Tuesday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data received by
the reconnaissance aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

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